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I converted his monthly data to barrels per data by dividing the monthly data by 30.417.
There were sometimes great anomalies in the data so to smooth things out, on the first three charts below, I used a 50 well average. The horizontal and right axis is first 24 hour barrels.
This was a very time consuming process since each well number had to be searched then copied and pasted into my Excel spreadsheet, one well at a time.
The right axis as well as the horizontal axis is the 24 hour barrels sort number. One can clearly see that the higher the 1st measured 24 hour production the higher the daily production for the next full, or nearly full, month.
Or if the from 1700 to 2200 barrels the first 24 hours we could expect the second months production to be about one fourth that number.
I think this leaves little doubt that the BOPD number that the NDIC reports in their Daily Activity Report Index is a very good guide to what kind of future production we can expect from any particular well.I have collected, from this source, the data from 2,565 wells dating from November 1st 2013 to the present date.Enno Peters gathered data from several thousand Bakken wells dating from the early Bakken t mid 2014. The first measured 24 hour production from Bakken wells is a very good predictor of the future production of that well.And it has also been confirmed that new wells with higher well numbers are producing a lot less.